The Complete Guide to Fantasy Football for Beginners Part 4: Starting/Benching Players

Every week, you choose who you start in your lineup and who you put on your bench. The players that you start will contribute to your overall point total, while the players that you choose to rest will not have their points matter to your total. Even if the player you bench has a monster game and scores 40, that’s too bad because you didn’t start him, so he might as well have not scored anything. 

There will be times throughout the season where a player you don’t start has a really productive game, while the guy you choose to play flops with 5 points. Fantasy football is a game of predictions, and not every prediction is gonna be the right one. This section will show you how to make a starting lineup in the most accurate way possible. 

The first 4 or so picks you make in your draft should be obvious, every week starters. If I were to choose CeeDee Lamb, Jahmyrr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Joe Burrow in the first few rounds, I am saying these are the players I will rely on to consistently rack up points every week. No matter who they play each game, I am expecting them to produce at a high level. However, don’t assume that these players are locked into a starting spot. Last year, Austin Ekeler was a consensus first round pick in almost all leagues, but ended up averaging less than 10 points in the final eight weeks of the season. These top players you select are expected to be every week starters, but if they start to have a continuous run of under-performances, then it is likely time you start considering how much value they add to your squad. Don’t give them up too easily after one or two bad performances, because they are elite talents, but remember that no player on your squad should ever be guaranteed a starting spot all year long. 

After the first several rounds, you start to find a bunch of mid-tier players with both upsides and downsides. It is then up to you to decide which one of these players will help increase your chances of winning the most. Here’s a list of key factors you should look at to determine which players are worth placing your trust in and which players should not be touching your starting lineup:

• Opponent

• Past several performances

• Utilization

• Injury History

• Ceiling/Floor

The team your player is matching up against is extremely important for how many points you should expect from them. Some defenses can severely limit top running backs through their schemes, while other defenses are extremely good at shutting down passers. If you are looking at an opponent, make sure to look at how many points this team has allowed to your player’s position. Example: If I’m considering whether or not to start Najee Harris against the Bills, I would look at how many points the Bills have allowed against running backs. If I see that the Bills boast the best defense in the league against the run game, then it’s probably a good idea to let Harris rest for this week. Instead, I see I have Zack Moss on my team, and he’s matching up against the Cardinal’s defense. I look at how the Cardinal’s defense is performing, and I see that they have allowed the 6th most points to running backs over the course of the season. By looking at both player’s matchups, I can see who has the easier opponent and confidently start Zack moss. 

Sometimes, a player can start to gain momentum as weeks go on and the trend is noticeable. At the same time, another guy might go on an obvious decline. If you wanna know who might shine and who might disappoint each week, it’s helpful to observe their most recent performances. My ideal baseline is the past three weeks. Having one or two straight games could be a simple fluke and comes with some risk, but once a player can put together three straight solid weeks, then he’s a safe bet to start. Similarly, a player who has three straight down weeks is a good sign that they aren’t as important of a piece in their offense anymore or they can’t produce at the rate they were expected to. 

Utilization can be a killer in the world of fantasy. So many games will feature talented, dynamic players losing touches and volume to guys who clearly aren’t as effective. Jahmyrr Gibbs, who was a relatively high draft pick last season, spent the first several weeks being featured as a second back behind David Montgomery. If you’re deciding whether a player can be trusted and the points aren’t giving you much information, look at how many carries/receptions he’s racking up. Even if he’s had some off games and hasn’t truly taken off, a high number of touches is a good sign that a RB/WR might be prepared for a breakout game. 

Finally, try to estimate the ceiling/floor a player provides. For those who aren’t familiar with that terminology, a ceiling is the best case scenario for a player and a floor is the worst possible output. I remember last season I had Michael Thomas on my team for the first half of the season, and while he wasn’t producing superstar numbers he provided a very consistent floor. He scored at least 9.3 points in his first eight games, but never more than 13.2 points. This gives a comfortable floor of around nine points, but a low ceiling of 13 points. By using the ceiling/floor method, you can accurately predict how risky or safe a player is to start, and this actually provides a good idea of which kind of player you need. If you’re playing a weak team and you’re expected to win, it’s better to start the safe player, but if you’re playing one of the league frontrunners as an underdog, then it might be in your best interest to start the risky player.