Rookie QBS in 2024 - Are they worth drafting? Full Analysis

Jayden Daniels. Caleb Williams. Bo Nix. The 2024 draft class had no shortage of quarterback talent, and a handful of them are set to take the field this season and prove that they can lead their respective teams into the future. And the minute they enter the professional league, they enter our fantasy leagues as well. In this article, we’re going to dive into every rookie quarterback projected to start this season, and provide their full fantasy forecast and whether or not they truly belong in your fantasy squad. 

The Chicago Bears held the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft, and made the obvious choice by selecting Caleb Williams out of USC. Williams burst into the NCAA landscape in his freshman year while playing for Oklahoma, and had a tremendous start to his college career. In his first year of college ball, he threw for 21 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions, adding 6 touchdowns on the ground. As a starter, he led Oklahoma to a 6-2 record before transferring to USC. 

As a sophomore at USC, Williams assumed the starting role immediately, and dominated the PAC-12 like no USC quarterback had ever done. He passed for a whopping 42 touchdowns while only being intercepted 5 times, and broke the single-season USC records for passing yards and touchdowns. His 2022 performance won him the Heisman trophy for the best player in college football. He continued to shine as a junior and eventually became the clear-cut number one overall pick in 2024. 

For his playstyle, Williams is an NFL ready QB who has boasted high levels of in-game IQ and unmatched accuracy. His ability to create plays from thin air and fit the football into the tightest of windows has been consistently praised by scouts and analysts, and he possesses top-tier decision-making that is uncommon for incoming rookies.

Williams will have growing struggles with decision-making and forced throws, as all rookies do, but his hyper-elite throwing ability and accuracy on every level of the field sets him apart from his competition. While not being a top-tier rusher, he’s mobile and has proven success on the ground, which is an important factor for fantasy managers. 

From a fantasy perspective, Williams shows lots of promise to be a year-long starter, but his fantasy inexperience poses some risk. However, with this Chicago Bears team he will be surrounded with his much improved from previous years - especially his receiving corps. 

DJ Moore had a career year in 2023 - 1300 yards and 8 touchdowns - even with inconsistent quarterback play, and as a passer it’s safe to say Caleb Williams is an upgrade from Justin Fields. Moore alone would be a capable WR1 for Williams to use, but this offense got even better when Keenan Allen joined over the offseason. Despite being 32 years old, Allen racked up 108 receptions for 1200 yards last season and is one of the best route-runners you can find anywhere. Him and Moore, arguably the best receiver duo in the league, will be nightmares for defensive schemes and will give Williams some crucial talent to rely on. 

In addition, tight end Cole Kmet and running back D’Andre Swift are both solid pass-catchers to make this offense even more electric. Giving Williams all these play-makers is a good sign for a rookie to have a successful season, and on top of that the Bears’ offensive line is in the top half of the league - perhaps the most important factor for a rookie QB. Williams almost has too much talent at his disposal, and Chicago has done a tremendous job at setting him up for success with elite offensive weapons. 

Caleb Williams will have to learn the ropes of playing as a professional, but the talent is undeniable and his is generational. I would project him as a high-end QB2 in 2024 and he can be a solid starter in deeper leagues. 

The next quarterback to be taken off the board was one pick after Williams, and that man was Jayden Daniels out of LSU. While Williams was the Heisman winner in 2022, Daniels was the Heisman winner in 2023. His passing stats were incredible - 40 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, and his insane 3800 passing yards in just 12 games. He was truly deserving of the best college football player that year, and he would be the first overall in most years. 

Daniels isn’t as strong of a passer as Caleb Williams, but he might actually be better suited for fantasy purposes. In 2023, he rushed for 1134 yards in 12 games. The fact that he possessed such an electric rushing ability while putting up such proficient passing numbers is a testament to how versatile Daniels really is as a quarterback. In fantasy, the quarterbacks who finish the highest tend to be the quarterbacks who possess the perfect blend of mobility and passing precision, which suits Daniels perfectly. Not only did he gain so much yardage on the ground, he scored 10 touchdowns as a ball carrier as well, which is no easy feat for a quarterback to complete. 

The significant drawback to Jayden Daniels is he is not as NFL-ready as Williams is. In other words, he will take longer to adjust his skillset to the professional level. Throughout his college career, Daniels was phenomenal at deep balls, but had some noticeable weaknesses in his accuracy in other parts of the field. He struggled to generate enough velocity to fit the ball into tight windows in several instances, which could hurt him against NFL defenses. 

Daniels also has an inflated risk of injury, as his low body mass combined with his frequency to run the ball increases his chances of being unable to sustain hits. If he stays healthy, his mobility could give him a serious edge in fantasy, but the chances of him getting hurt are higher than most quarterbacks. 

Jayden Daniels was selected by the Washington Commanders, which isn't necessarily a bad offense for Daniels but not a very strong one either. Regarding his pass-catchers, he has a solid WR1 in Terry McLaurin and another potential WR2 in Jahan Dotson, but not much depth. TE Zach Ertz is solid but very old and is near the end of his career, so Daniels does not have much help in the receiving department. 

His backfield is stronger - Brian Robinson is a developing young back who has been decent in his two year career, while free agency addition Austin Ekeler is a consistent pass-catching back that can act as a reliable safety outlet for Daniels throughout the season. However, the offensive line Daniels will be protected by is close to the bottom of the league and I doubt the LSU man will get accustomed to NFL pass-rush so quickly, as poor protection has been a killer for rookie QBs in recent years. I expect this offense to shuffle a mix of RPOs and play-actions in 2024, which could give Daniels plenty of opportunities to run the ball himself to convert into fantasy production. 

Jayden Daniels has potential to be an elite dual-threat quarterback, but he will need lots of time to develop and is a very risky bet in his rookie season. I project him to be a mid-tier QB2 that should be started only in a pinch. 

The next three quarterbacks selected were Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy, but none are expected to start. If anyone has a chance of taking over the offense this season, it’s Drake Maye, but the Patriots have made it clear they are set on veteran Jacoby Brissett leading the team. There is an outside shot of Drake Maye replacing him later in the season, but his value shouldn’t land him on draft boards this season. 

With the 12th pick in the draft, the Denver Broncos selected Bo Nix out of Oregon. It’s not confirmed, but it’s looking more and more like Nix will be the starter this year over fellow teammate Zach Wilson. If this turns out to be true, I still don’t think he should be more than a late round draft pick in fantasy drafts this year. 

Nix is not a bad player by any means, but this Broncos offense has been a mess for years and he doesn’t have the experience to elevate it much. Russell Wilson was the starter for the past few years, but his short tenure was unremarkable and I don’t expect Nix to turn that all around. 

Coming out of Oregon, Nix was an athletic, flexible player who excelled at escaping pressure in college, and threw for a whopping 45 touchdowns in his final year - good enough to finish 3rd in Heisman voting. He is a noticeable step down from Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, but his skills are undeniable and he could shine if put in the right offensive scheme. 

Nix is a relatively incomplete quarterback by NFL standards. He operated through a simple offensive scheme in Oregon that consisted of short passes and RPOs, and did not have much opportunity to showcase his abilities to sling the ball downfield. If he wants to succeed at an elite level in the big leagues, he’ll need to expand his game and reduce some of the inconsistencies that he has struggled with in the past, such as some occasional struggles in progressing past his first read. 

It doesn’t help that the Broncos offense lacks elite talent in almost every aspect. They have solid playmakers and blockers, but overall the offensive line is very average at best. Courtland Sutton is a bright spot on this offense and has been a consistent pass catcher for years, so Nix will benefit from building a strong relationship with him. However, WR Jerry Jeudy was lost over the offseason, so outside of Sutton the Broncos don’t have much else to provide Nix with. Javonte Williams is a solid running back who has the ability to run screen plays and can be a safety valve for dump offs, but he’s not Christian McCaffrey. 

This offense is not going to do a good job with providing Nix much help in his rookie year. I project him to be a low-tier QB that should only be started in deep leagues if necessary.