Welcome to our 2024 Fantasy Football "Busts" List! Every season, certain players come with high expectations but ultimately fail to deliver the points fantasy managers are hoping for. Drafting a player who underperforms can be a significant setback, potentially derailing your championship aspirations. In this article, we'll highlight five players who, despite their high draft stock and past performances, are primed to disappoint this season.
Through careful analysis of their situations, including team changes, injury histories, and statistical trends, we aim to give you a clearer picture of why these players might not live up to their billing. Avoiding these potential busts could be the key to building a more consistent and reliable fantasy roster. Let's dive in and help you navigate around these pitfalls in your draft!
Nico Collins
Nico Collins is going in the second round in most drafts, ahead of some big-name players such as Chris Olave and Davante Adams. I think Collins should have a really productive season, but I don’t see him rising past his draft value in a Texans offense with so many mouths to feed. I would be very cautious to spend a pick on him in the first two rounds.
To start, Tank Dell was a top receiver in this Houston team when healthy, and had 61 targets in games where both him and Collins were healthy. Collins did edge him out with 67 targets in the same stage, but the minimal gap between the two doesn’t set up Collins to be a top 15 player in this year’s draft. Due to Tank Dell’s injury concerns at the end of the season, it is safe to say Collins will be the more utilized weapon in the offense, but that doesn’t mean Dell won’t steal valuable targets away. And on top of that, I haven’t even mentioned Stefon Diggs yet.
Diggs has easily been one of the most electric receivers of the past few years. His past finishes in fantasy over the last 4 years go as follows: WR3, WR7, WR4, and WR9. He was traded to Houston this offseason, and has notoriously had problems in the past with not receiving enough targets. This has led to some feuds and was likely part of the reason he’s no longer in Buffalo. For a volume-hungry guy like Diggs to come to Houston, he probably expects quarterback C.J. Stroud to be feeding him the ball consistently. With 3 dynamic receivers in the lineup, Nico Collins will struggle to find enough volume to keep him as a top 12 wide receiver.
2. Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle is going at the top of the third round and is considered the WR15, which feels like an extremely inflated value for me. As it stands, he would be the WR2 for most fantasy teams in 2024 even though he’s closer to a flex play based on his upside. This isn’t a knock to Waddle’s talent, it’s just extremely difficult to be a standout fantasy player playing alongside superstar Tyreek Hill.
I’m not gonna go in depth on the importance of Hill, as everyone knows how much this Miami offense relies on the speedster week in and week out. All you need to know is he’s been arguably the best receiver in the league for many seasons now and was targeted a whopping 171 times in 2023. With such massive talent competing for volume, Waddle’s performances last season were severely hindered, and he finished as the WR34 overall. Missing three games to injury definitely contributed to this margin, but it’s also important to note that almost 27% of his total fantasy points came in two games, and he only averaged 12 points in every other game. He also only had four games with more than 14.5 points.
What could hurt Waddle’s value even more in this upcoming season is the Miami rushing attack. The Dolphins flaunted one of the best rushing offenses in the league with Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane, the latter who had a 51 point game in week 3. Mostert had over 200 carries, and Achane had over 100 while missing 6 games. This Miami offense will be a top rushing offense in 2024, and most of their pass game volume will go to Tyreek Hill. Where does this leave Jaylen Waddle?
Well, Waddle did have a pretty safe floor in 2023, failing to score double digit points in just 4 games. But when you look for a WR2 option in 2024 you won’t be looking for someone to score 10 points every game unless you’re in a larger league. There are better options this year.
3. Jonathan Taylor
While I'm not as high on Jonathan Taylor as others, I can't deny his talent. He's an athletic and versatile back playing behind a strong offensive line, making him a key part of the Colts offense. Despite his breakout 2021 season, injuries have plagued him since, limiting him to 21 games over the last two seasons.
There are several concerns with Taylor. At 25, he's reaching an age where many running backs begin to decline, and his injury history makes it unlikely he’ll replicate his 2021 performance. Additionally, the NFL’s increasing focus on the passing game means Taylor’s limited receiving skills are a drawback; he had only 19 receptions in 10 games in 2023. Though Anthony Richardson's presence might change this, their limited playing time together complicates building chemistry.
Moreover, the Colts' offense in 2024 will likely be more dynamic, with Richardson expected to throw more and receivers like Michael Pittman and rookie Adonai Mitchell needing targets. This could reduce Taylor's workload compared to his best season under a run-heavy scheme with Carson Wentz.
However, Taylor is still a strong fantasy option, with little competition for carries and a great offensive line. Just be prepared for the Colts to possibly lean more on Richardson's arm, which might limit Taylor's ceiling.
4. Derrick Henry
Writing Derrick Henry’s name on this list almost brought a tear to my eye. He’s been an elite rusher for many years and was the centerpiece of the Titans' offense. His stiff arm against Josh Norman in 2020 was iconic and went viral. However, it's time to acknowledge that Henry is aging and may not be as efficient for fantasy managers as the NFL continues to evolve. In modern football, the best fantasy running backs excel in both rushing and receiving, and Henry doesn’t fit that mold. While he remains a highly talented rusher, I don't see him finishing as a top 10 running back in 2024.
Henry's past appeal was not only his talent but also the Titans' heavy reliance on him. He lacks the pass-catching ability that many fantasy managers value, and his rushing efficiency has declined over the years. Although he's still very good, I believe the upcoming season could be his worst yet. Now with the Ravens, after spending his entire career with Tennessee, Henry faces new challenges. In 2023, he had the 7th highest yards per carry among the top ten rushers at 4.2, largely due to his heavy workload, leading the league with 280 carries. He won’t see that kind of workload in Baltimore. For four consecutive years, the Ravens' leading rusher has been QB Lamar Jackson, with only one running back exceeding 150 carries in a season (Gus Edwards with 198 in 2023). While Henry is more talented than recent Ravens backs, I predict he will receive around 220 carries, a significant drop from last season.
Henry is now 30 years old. The last 30-year-old running back to finish a season as a top 15 fantasy RB was Cordarrelle Patterson in 2021, and before that, LeGarrette Blount in 2016. Patterson's success was due to his 52 receptions and 548 receiving yards, while Blount had 18 rushing touchdowns. Henry, with only 12 rushing touchdowns and 28 receptions last season, won't have the same opportunities in Baltimore's offense, where Lamar Jackson dominates the rushing game.
Henry’s lack of receiving upside, combined with his age and transition to a new offense that will utilize him less, doesn’t bode well. The Ravens' run-option plays will often see Henry used as a decoy to highlight Jackson’s agility. Additionally, backups Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell, who combined for 131 carries last year despite Gus Edwards being the main workhorse, will continue to steal touches. Despite these factors, Henry is being drafted as a top ten running back in 2024, a value I don’t see him reaching. Avoid him and consider younger, pass-catching backs like Isaiah Pacheco or Travis Etienne. This choice could be the key to winning your league.
5. Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce is another example of a player’s age catching up to him and affecting his on-field performance. The Kansas City star still has the potential of finishing as the overall TE1, but the crazy part is that even if he does finish that high - I don’t think he’s worth more than a late 3rd round pick. There are several other tight-ends that are younger that I see with as much potential as claiming that TE1 spot (Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, etc). The main knock is the Tight End position is so washed down nowadays that I don’t think any player should be taken higher than the third round.
Kelce was the obvious top tight end in fantasy drafts last year, and it was one of the most consistent trends nationwide: in almost every draft, Kelce was taken higher than any other tight end. He started the season playing like everyone expected him to: averaging nearly 18 points and posting a 36 point performance against the Chargers in Week 7. With no competition for targets, Kelce was excelling. But after the bye week, the Chiefs offensive scheme started to shift: Isaiah Pacheco posted some really productive games while healthy, and wide receiver Rashee Rice ended the season with 61 targets in 7 weeks after the bye. The development of new offensive weapons started to affect Kelce’s production: from week 11 until the rest of the season, he only averaged 11 fantasy points and ended the season with three straight games under 10 points. He didn’t have a single performance with over 16 points after week 7.
Now, there is a very true possibility that Kelce does prove me wrong and finish as the top tight end. However, he was only the TE3 last season and his consistent downwards trend as the weeks went on doesn’t bode well for how he will perform in 2024. He’s 34 years old and younger guys are starting to outshine him. To add, the Chiefs used their first round pick on WR Xavier Worthy, who posted the highest 40-yard dash time. NFL fans will remember the last speedster on the Chiefs, Tyreek Hill, cooked defenses with Patrick Mahomes using the same combination of speed and agility - it seems like Worthy is expected to become the true WR1 in this offense and this team may want to move on from Travis Kelce being the top pass catcher as he reaches his mid-30s. If Kelce somehow defies these trends and is the TE1, it won’t be by much. His ADP is higher than any other tight end, but I’d bank on the upside of other guys like Sam LaPorta or Trey McBride.
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